This is an excellent article from globalpensions on investing. With the U.S. market in turmoil over the sub-prime debt and the weakening economy it maybe a good idea to invest abroad. I’m not an expert on international stocks or markets but it seems logical to try to diversify with international investments. If the pension funds are moving toward emerging markets is this a place an individual investor could play in?
http://globalpensions.com/showPage.html?page=gp_display_feature&tempPageId=702495
Sweet spot in the crisis
by Keren Holland 21 February 2008
Having remained relatively untarnished by the sub-prime fallout, emerging market debt is looking increasingly good to many pension funds. Keren Holland reports
As the credit crunch causes pension funds to take a closer look at their asset allocation, emerging market debt (EMD) is proving to be a winner.
Jerome Booth, head of research at Ashmore, said many investors were concerned they had too much in US holdings and were looking to EMD as an alternative. He said: “What we are seeing is a lot of central bank money, but also pension fund money.
“This is very much a risk reducer and a risk diversifier. People are realising they have far too much invested in the US, they need to reduce that, and this is the best way to do it.”
Two events during 2007 had a major impact on EMD, according to Booth. Since the summer, many panic stricken funds such as hedge funds had come out of the asset class because of ongoing problems related to the credit crunch. In addition, investment banks had reduced their exposure ahead of the year end.
He said: “All of that money came out and it hasn’t really come back in because they have continued to have problems since the summer.
“The more dedicated investors and big institutional investors just bought into that and it has gone higher and higher.”
Julian Lyne, global head of consultant relations at HSBC, said pension funds were increasingly investing in EMD.
He said: “What we are seeing is a number of pension schemes making direct allocations to EMD, what we are also seeing is allocations from fixed income being diversified into emerging market debt.”
One example was a client which had a high yield mandate and, as part of that, wanted to increase its exposure to EMD.
He said: “It is coming from a whole range of sources, and it has been gathering pace over the last 12 to 24 months.”
As a result, HSBC launched a new local currency fund which allows the manager to allocate to both local currency and hard currency.
Lyne said this gave the fund a much broader opportunity set. He said: “A lot of money has flowed into the area so it is not just a question of following the proven track, we believe it is important the fund manager is aware of how the market is changing, how emerging markets are changing and where the best opportunities for investors are.
“We have seen quite a lot of interest from pension schemes which are looking to have their fixed income manager have a particular target, perhaps an absolute return target, with the opportunity of investing in emerging market debt, both hard currency and local currency.
“I think what you are really going to see going forward is an allocation to a fixed income mandate with an absolute return target, where there is the potential to use EMD as one of a number of tools.”
Glyn Jones, CIO of specialist investment consultancy Psolve, said it was only the very large pension schemes that were investing directly in EMD, while smaller ones were finding alternative routes to the asset class.
He said: “Not many pension funds apart from the very large ones are investing directly. It is very difficult for smaller and medium-sized pension funds to have the time to govern anything other than a very simple investment strategy, so what we launched was an implemented consulting service, which is where we use Franklin Templeton. Our implemented consulting clients are using EMD without consciously having taken the decision themselves, having delegated the implementation of their strategy.”
Pension funds were also gaining exposure through rotational bond mandates, according to Jones: “We do not see many clients who will make a static strategic allocation to EMD. It does provide returns over the cycle but it tends to go through phases of good returns and bad returns.
“We think one of the important things to do is to have the ability to take that risk off the table if the asset class is looking poorer. We are seeing broad based bond mandates where the manager can make allocations to EMD, but also has the ability to allocate to other fixed income markets as they deem appropriate.”
Hard or local currency?
When it came to a choice between hard currency and local currency, most managers highlighted local currency as the place to be. Booth said local currency emerging market debt tended to be attractive because it provided a hedge against dollar weakness.
He said: “If the dollar were stable now, I would expect similar levels of return in dollar debt and local currency debt over the next year, but that is not what I expect.
“I am expecting significant further dollar weakness and with that potentially more performance com
ing out of local currency debt. So instead of maybe 15% return, you may get 10% to 15% in addition to that.” Simon Lue Fong, head of emerging debt at Pictet Asset Management, said local currency debt had emerged as its own asset class and demand had been strong. He said asset allocation models were showing investors they should have some investment in local currency debt.
He said: “In effect, investors are underweight this asset class, they have never invested in it because it didn’t exist, and the flow of money that has – and is going to continue to – come into this market for the next two to four years is quite large. nsions.com
“We get a good insight into this because people have asked us to come and talk to them about what this asset class is and that has ranged from everyone from central banks, pension funds, insurance companies and private wealth firms to private banks – almost every type of investor you can think of.”
Good performers
Lue Fong said the funds that performed best did well for two reasons. Firstly, those who started early had a first mover advantage because they could get assets invested before others.
In addition, as demand for the asset class continued to grow, prices were being pushed higher. Lue Fong said: “Everyone is trying to get into this game now – everybody wants a piece of this because the demand is there.”
Peter Eerdmans, portfolio manager, EMD, at Investec Asset Management, said the firm’s focus was also on local currency EMD. He explained: “We think that is the market for the future and one that will be growing. It offers many opportunities and in our expectation also offers superior returns to dollar debt.
“A lot of pension funds that have made allocations to EMD over the last four or five years will have done so to hard currency emerging market debt.
“I would argue they should at least consider adding or switching some of that into local EMD or even going for pure local EMD.”
However, Eerdmans said it would take time for pension funds to realise the benefits in comparison to hard EMD. He said: “It did make a lot of sense to allocate to hard currency EMD three or four years ago when local debt was still in its infancy, but local currency EMD has seen a lot of growth, benchmarks have been developed and managers have developed specific processes, so I think now is the time to start considering it.
“I think with the right education, pension funds wouldn’t be that hesitant. Local debt obviously introduces currency risk because you will get exposed to the currencies of these countries. But I think many pension funds will view that as an opportunity because these currencies are likely, in the medium to long term, to appreciate against developed market currencies as they continue to develop and offer higher yields.
“That story of positive and structural reforms in emerging markets, coupled with currency strength, is a story that pension funds find quite appealing.”
Claire Husson, portfolio manager for Franklin Templeton’s EMD-dedicated team, said the latest Emerging Markets Trading Association Quarterly Bulletin showed that 71% of EMD turnover was in local bonds in Q3 2007, even more than in 2006 when local bonds represented around two thirds of foreign capital flows in EMD.
However, she warned care should be taken with local currency bonds, because with increased demand, the positive correlation between emerging markets and the rest of the global capital markets had dramatically increased. She said one of the best places to invest was in new emerging markets, or frontier markets, which provided opportunities because they presented a low correlation with the global capital markets, in particular Africa and Central Asia.
She added: “Illiquidity can be very supportive of the asset prices and some of these issuers have series of infrastructure projects to finance with new sources of government revenues and financing.”
In more mature emerging markets, or converging markets, Husson said new instruments such as inflation-linked bonds, debt instruments linked to contingent liabilities and corporate bonds were providing opportunities. But she said exploiting these opportunities required local presence or local connections, along with constant interaction with local market players and local representatives of financial institutions.
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