In fact, analysis IS all science, a wonderful science I have spent much of my life studying. You want top down approach, ok, we’re heading into an election where the outcome appears to be a mega liberal president and a populist vice president. That is a recipe for financial market meltdown. We are currently in the first quarter of a protracted recession, and while a cut in interest rates might briefly stabilize mortgage rates, the current rampant level of inflation will surely tie the hands of the fed from any real rate cutting. This is definitely NOT the kind of market where one buys what everyone else is selling in hopes that the world soon comes rosy again.

You prefer bottom up? Millions upon millions of investors, traders, advisors and charlatans such as yourself have succumbed to the infamous ‘bottom picking’ strategy. You feel a sense of wholeness and power in being able to ‘call the bottom’ and be the first one in line to say it is all over. Unfortuately for you, 98% of the others lost all their money. This is why we say things like ‘the trend is your friend’ and ‘don’t catch a falling knife’. FACT: Price moves up when there is more buyers than sellers. FACT: the bulk of the market is comprised of institutional money spending millions of dollars on research and I am quite certain that this research has proved to be slightly more correct in NOT buying now than your armchair research with the faintest glimpse of a thought in one hand and a beer in the other. Here’s another little tidbit for you, companies that have been wiped out like Citi and CFC, they rarely if ever have a “V” bottom. In fact, you can be assured that any sharp and quick rallies are just ‘dead cat bounces’ designed to pay shorts and capture sucker bottom pickers. No this stock will flatline for awhile before ever truly rallying again.

Here’s a piece of advice, if you want to risk your own funds and gamble in market, feel free. Don’t delude yourself into thinking it isn’t a science, or that you know more than the thousands of decorated analysts. But when it comes to a message board, and someone elses money, don’t ever talk a person into stupid risk. It’s completely unprofessional and looks amazingly poorly on you and your firm. I’d hate to see what they would say to you if they knew you were on a message board touting for people to dump their house fund into CFC….especially after looking at YOUR portfolio.

Hot industries for 2008 appear to be Biotech and Telecom. I would advise that those who would like to see some growth this year find themselves some public ownership in either of these two very promising industries… as far as my company specific recommendations, I have learned not to tango with the “over” analysts that have membership on this site. It’s not all science. In fact, the best investing is based on world economics and politics, and an understanding of where people are directing their free time and attention.

Also pbucelwicz if you lose 32% in 2 weeks you should be out of that stock. You can’t justfy holding such a huge loser.

large systematic risk = large potential reward
large unsystematic risk = a bad idea

What do you think will happen when all the ARMs reset this year?

A person interested in an agressive investment strategy will be interested in stocks with a high beta (a measure of investment risk). Evaluate Countrywide Financial Group and notice their volatility. In addition, while this company is likely to have difficulty with it’s corporate restructuring, management could turn this company into a powerhouse, whereupon this stock could become very valuable. Indexing will not help an investor interested in an agressive strategy.